Long-term Effects Of Climate Change Research Articles

Effects of Long-term Climate Change on Typhoon Rainfall Associated with Southwesterly Monsoon Flow near Taiwan: Mindulle (2004) and Morakot (2009)

Effects of Long-term Climate Change on Typhoon Rainfall Associated with Southwesterly Monsoon Flow near Taiwan: Mindulle (2004) and Morakot (2009)

Investigating the Long-Term Effects of Climate Change on Specific Vulnerable Ecosystem Such as Coral Reefs

Investigating the Long-Term Effects of Climate Change on Specific Vulnerable Ecosystem Such as Coral Reefs

Institutional Proxy Representatives of Future Generations: A Comparative Analysis of Types and Design Features

Future generations will be strongly affected by political decisions made today (e.g., by the long-term consequences of climate change). According to the democratic all-affected principle, the interests of everyone affected by political decisions should be considered in the political decision-making process. Future generations cannot influence democratic decision-making, since they do not yet exist. Election-based democratic incentive systems are said to make it difficult to consider the needs of future generations today. Surprisingly, however, since the early 1990s, an increasing number of democracies have established what could be called institutional proxy representatives of future generations (proxies), i.e., public bodies with institutionalized access to government and/or parliament that introduce the construed interests of future generations into the political decision-making process. Proxies help to consider future generations’ interests alongside the interests of current constituencies. After concept building, this comparative study searches all liberal democracies and identifies 25 proxies, with heterogeneous institutional designs. By employing membership criteria, three types are distinguished: (a) expertise-driven independent guardians (type I), (b) political or administrative advisory and coordination bodies (type II), and (c) sustainability stakeholder councils or committees (type III). They vary considerably in their formal capacity to influence political decision-making (i.e., on what legal basis they were provided with what instruments to address which phases of the policy process and which branches of government). Overall, they should not be overburdened with expectations. While they are usually equipped with the tools to voice the (construed) interests of future generations, they often lack the capacity to act as watchdogs with teeth when ignored.

Analysis of land system resilience: Static and dynamic perspectives

Land system face multiple threats due to the long-term effects of climate change, global geopolitical and economic. Our research simulates the static and dynamic resilience of land systems under increasing socioeconomic pressures and frequent disturbances from natural disasters. We use an improved load-capacity model to simulate the cascading failure effects of agricultural land systems. The study finds that parameters change after deliberate attacks much earlier than random attacks that cause network collapse. The core nodes in the trade structure carry most of the functions, and such regions and land types should be focused on. Cascading failures make the network more vulnerable due to the transmissibility of pressure. Static attacks can cause network collapse when more than 30% of nodes are attacked, while dynamic attacks only need to attack 10% of nodes. According to parameter optimization, the node capacity should be maximized while reducing the gap in the initial load of the nodes, thereby weakening the cascading effect. To ensure the reliability of the results, the article conduct robustness tests. Finally, in order to develop sustainable land systems, the article propose that it is necessary to assess resilience, identify key elements, effectively monitor land systems, and develop sound land protection plans.

Predictability of water resources with global climate models. Case of Northern Tunisia

The objective of the research is to explore the predictability of water resources directly with GCMs by analysing long-term effects of climate change on Northern Tunisia’s blue and green water. Hydrologic impacts rely on a rainfall-runoff lumped model using outputs of CMIP6 GCMs within the framework of the ssp2-45 scenario. Among the 30 CMIP6 models, the composite cnrm-esm2-1 and fgoals-g3 best restore observed runoff from 1995 to 2014 and give the best GCM. Hydrologic projections 2015–2100 show significant drops in rainfall (9%), runoff (21%), groundwater recharge (15%), as well as for green water (6%). The results show that the use of raw GCMs predictions on large basins is possible and provides precisions comparable to what is produced when using Regional Climate Models in medium size basins.

Growth Response of Thai Pine (Pinus latteri) to Climate Drivers in Tak Province of Northwestern Thailand

The long-term effects of climate change and climate extremes have been associated with changes in tree growth and forest productivity worldwide, and dendrochronological analyses are important tools that can be used to investigate the influence of climatic forces on tree growth at a particular site. In this study, a 180-year tree ring width chronology (spanning from 1843 to 2022) of living pine trees (Pinus latteri) in Tak province, northwestern Thailand, was developed. The analysis of the climate–tree growth relationship indicated the influences of the annual total rainfall (r = 0.60, p < 0.001) and annual averaged relative humidity (r = 0.47, p < 0.001) on tree growth in this area. Anomalously high (for example, in 1853, 1984, 2011, and 2018) and low growths (for example, in 1954, 1983, 1992, and 1996) were found. Growth anomalies in the Thai pine in this study were related to changes in abnormal and extreme rainfall (r = 0.94, p < 0.001) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results confirm that rainfall and relative humidity are the main climatic factors regulating the radial growth of Thai pine. This finding could be an important contribution to further research on the effects of climate change and extreme weather events on the vulnerability of tropical and subtropical trees in this region.

Modeling climate change adaptation for sustainable coastal zones using GIS and AHP

The world is currently confronting one of its biggest environmental challenges: combating climate change. Coastal zones are one of the areas thought to be most sensitive to current and future climate change threats. The paper integrates Remote Sensing (RS), Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to detect vulnerable areas from climate change impacts in coastal zones in order to recommend adaptation systems in new coastal zones that can withstand various climatic changes. The proposed decision-making framework was developed in three phases: 1) climate data collection and processing; 2) Coastal Climate Impact Assessment (CCIA) model development; and 3) implementation and adaptation system selection. The climate data collection and processing phase involves determining the most significant climate change parameters and their indicators that affect coastal zone stability, extracting climatic data indicators from different climate database sources, and prioritizing the selected indicators. The indicators’ weights were estimated using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) through a questionnaire survey shared with experts in climate change impacts. A CCIA model development phase involves the formulation of the proposed model using GIS technique to discover the vulnerable areas according to the most dominant impact. The implementation and adaptation system selection phase involves the application of the framework to Al-Alamein New City in Egypt. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to measure the behavior of several climate change parameters to identify the most critical parameter for climate change in Al-Alamein New City. The results showed that the geology of the region is the most crucial component influenced by climate change. It is capable of producing a very sensitive area in the coastal zone while also taking other factors into account. When creating new urban neighborhoods, the erosion of the shoreline is the least important factor to consider. This is because coastal deterioration is caused by both the influence of metrological data on the region and the impact of human activity. Shoreline deterioration will be reduced if climate conditions are maintained while limiting the impact of human activities. To adapt to the long-term effects of climate change on coastal zones, a combination of soft and hard protection systems should be considered.

Pandemics and Climate Change as Systemic Risks: Law, Policy, Insurance, Physical Activity and Exercise as Mitigating Environmental Degradation Mechanisms

Climate change and the Covid-19 pandemic have been classified as systemic risks and have elaborated that such systemic risks will become the new normal. Ways to tackle the long-term effects of climate change include law and environmental policy. In addition, insurance can help mitigate the burden placed on governments when such systemic risks occur, including pandemics. In relation to the Covid-19 pandemic and the effects of long-Covid, sports and exercise are examined as a mitigating factor able to release pressure from public health and help mitigate its long-term effects. This article discusses the correlation of Covid-19 with environmental changes and climate changes and goes on to address the role of insurance, on the one hand and sports and exercise on the other hand as mitigating mechanisms to handle systemic risks such as climate change and pandemics. The article’s findings suggest and conclude that 1) outside state action (law and policy), private action such as change in lifestyle towards a more sustainable way of life, and sports and exercise can help with the long-term effects of pandemics and 2) insurance can act as a mitigating private sector mechanism. Governments should integrate law, policy, and mitigating techniques such as private insurance to tackle and respond to systemic risks. climate change, Covid-19, systemic risks, insurance, physical exercise, mitigation for climate change, mitigation, public health

Long-term prediction of the effects of climate change on indoor climate and air quality

Limiting the negative impact of climate change on nature and humans is one of the most pressing issues of the 21st century. Meanwhile, people in modern society spend most of the day indoors. It is therefore surprising that comparatively little attention has been paid to indoor human exposure in relation to climate change. Heat action plans have now been designed in many regions to protect people from thermal stress in their private homes and in public buildings. However, in order to be able to plan effectively for the future, reliable information is required about the long-term effects of climate change on indoor air quality and climate.The Indoor Air Quality Climate Change (IAQCC) model is an expediant tool for estimating the influence of climate change on indoor air quality. The model follows a holistic approach in which building physics, emissions, chemical reactions, mold growth and exposure are combined with the fundamental parameters of temperature and humidity. The features of the model have already been presented in an earlier publication, and it is now used for the expected climatic conditions in Central Europe, taking into account various shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios up to the year 2100.For the test house examined in this study, the concentrations of pollutants in the indoor air will continue to rise. At the same time, the risk of mold growth also increases (the mold index rose from 0 to 4 in the worst case for very sensitive material). The biggest problem, however, is protection against heat and humidity. Massive structural improvements are needed here, including insulation, ventilation, and direct sun protection. Otherwise, the occupants will be exposed to increasing thermal discomfort, which can also lead to severe heat stress indoors.

Proline concentrations in seedlings of woody plants change with drought stress duration and are mediated by seed characteristics: a meta-analysis

Proline accumulation represents one of mechanisms used by plants to prevent the adverse consequences of water stress. The effects of increased proline levels in response to drought differ among species. Trees are exposed to the long-term effects of climate change. The reproductive success of species in a specific environment depends on the functional trait of tree seeds. We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the effects of drought stress on the proline concentrations in seedling leaf tissues of woody plant species and their relationships to drought duration, seed mass, seed category and coniferous/deciduous classification. Drought duration exhibited a nonlinear effect on proline accumulations. The drought effect on proline accumulations is greater for deciduous than for coniferous species and is higher for orthodox seed species than for recalcitrant. The seedlings of large-seeded species showed greater effect sizes than those of small-seeded species. Our results suggest that there is an optimum level at which proline accumulations under the influence of drought are the highest. A link between seed functional traits, as well as the coniferous/deciduous classification, and proline concentrations in tree seedlings during water stress were determined for the first time. Proline may help to identify high-quality seeds of trees used for reforestation.

Effects of climate change on gilthead seabream aquaculture in the Mediterranean

Aquaculture of gilthead seabream, arguably the most important finfish aquaculture species in the Mediterranean, faces changing environmental conditions due to faster-than-average climate change in the region. We utilize physiological modelling to estimate effects of moderate and severe climate change on key indices of aquaculture production for all coastal regions of the Mediterranean. Two publicly available global climate change scenarios with daily sea temperature projections serve as forcing for the physiological model during two-year farming cycles representing: (i) reference period starting in 2021, (ii) mid-term effects starting in 2051, and (iii) long-term effects starting in 2091.We investigate effects of climate change by analyzing changes in time for fish to reach a market size, feed conversion ratio at the market size, and the weight of the fish and the associated feed conversion ratio after two years of farming. Additionally, we track the number of days with sea water temperatures equal to or greater than 28 °C during the two-year period, when gilthead seabream starts experiencing temperature stress. Time to market size generally decreases with climate change from the initial average of 450 days for the reference period by up to 36%. Feed conversion ratio at market size does not appreciably change with climate change, but it does change for the two-year culturing period for up to 10 %, primarily due to faster growth in warmer sea water, and the correspondingly greater weight achieved over the two-year growth cycle.While the outlook for aquaculture is positive in the mid-term, some indicators show a negative trend in the long-term. The long-term effects of climate change will be greatest in the currently most productive farming regions of the Mediterranean: Levantine, Aegean, and Adriatic seas, and coastal waters of Tunisia. Our analysis focuses on basin-level features, but we provide geospatially referenced simulation results that can be used to analyze effects of climate change in a particular region of interest.

The promotion of stress tolerant Symbiodiniaceae dominance in juveniles of two coral species under simulated future conditions of ocean warming and acidification

The symbiotic relationship between coral and its endosymbiotic algae, Symbiodiniaceae, greatly influences the hosts’ potential to withstand environmental stress. To date, the effects of climate change on this relationship has primarily focused on adult corals. Uncovering the effects of environmental stress on the establishment and development of this symbiosis in early life stages is critical for predicting how corals may respond to climate change. To determine the impacts of future climate projections on the establishment of symbionts in juvenile corals, ITS2 amplicon sequencing of single coral juveniles was applied to Goniastrea retiformis and Acropora millepora before and after exposure to three climate conditions of varying temperature and pCO2 levels (current and RCP8.5 in 2050 and 2100). Compared to ambient conditions, juvenile corals experienced shuffling in the relative abundance of Cladocopium (C1m, decrease) to Durusdinium (D1 and D1a, increase) over time. We calculated a novel risk metric incorporating functional redundancy and likelihood of impact on host physiology to identify the loss of D1a as a “low risk” to the coral compared to the loss of “higher risk” taxa like D1 and C1m. Although the increase in stress tolerant Durusdinium under future warming was encouraging for A. millepora, by 2100, G. retiformis communities displayed signs of symbiosis de-regulation, suggesting this acclimatory mechanism may have species-specific thresholds. Whilst this study cannot specifically disentangle the individual effects of temperature and pCO2, it does provide valuable insights into the impacts of both stressors combined. These results emphasize the need for understanding of long-term effects of climate change induced stress on coral juveniles, and their potential for increased acclimation to heat tolerance through changes in symbiosis.

[Climate Crisis: What Gastrointestinal Complications of this Medical Emergency Should We Be Aware Of?]

The climate crisis has serious consequences for many areas of life. This applies in particular to human health - also in Europe. While cardiovascular, pneumological and dermatological diseases related to the climate crisis are often discussed, the crisis' significant gastroenterological consequences for health must also be considered. A literature search (Pubmed, Cochrane Library) was used to identify papers with relevance particularly to the field of gastroenterology in (Central) Europe. Findings were supplemented and discussed by an interdisciplinary team. The climate crisis impacts the frequency and severity of gastrointestinal diseases in Europe due to more frequent and severe heat waves, flooding and air pollution. While patients with intestinal diseases are particularly vulnerable to acute weather events, the main long-term consequences of climate change are gastrointestinal cancer and liver disease. In addition to gastroenteritis, other infectious diseases such as vector-borne diseases and parasites are important in the context of global warming, heat waves and floods. Adaptation strategies must be consistently developed and implemented for vulnerable groups. Patients at risk should be informed about measures that can be implemented individually, such as avoiding heat, ensuring appropriate hydration and following hygiene instructions. Recommendations for physical activity and a healthy and sustainable diet are essential for the prevention of liver diseases and carcinomas. Measures for prevention and the promotion of resilience can be supported by the physicians at various levels. In addition to efforts fostering sustainability in the immediate working environment, a system-oriented commitment to climate protection is important.

Indonesian Food Production Challenges: Climate, Land and Industrialization

The increase in agricultural production has become a global issue related to food security. Indonesia faces challenges in fulfilling its food needs. Climate change, land conversion, and industrialization play a role in food crop production. This study aims to examine the short-term and long-term effects of climate change, land conversion, and industrialization on the food production index. The analysis method used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The ARDL analysis was chosen because it can explain the short-term and long-term effects as well as the effects at each lag time. The results showed that there is positive and significant long-term cointegration or influence between rainfall, per capita energy consumption, agricultural land area, and forest area on the food production index. There is also a significant negative long-term effect between air temperature, industrialization, and population density on the food production index. In the short term, the previous year's food production, land area and forest area, air temperature, energy consumption, rainfall in two and three years ago, current of industrial share, and one and two years ago industrial share, population density two years ago influence the current food production index. The conclusion and findings of this study are that there is long-term cointegration and short-term effects at different lag times for climate change, land conversion, and industrialization variables on the food production index.

The green investment principles: from a nodal governance perspective

China’s Belt and Road Initiative is now the world’s largest infrastructure initiative, with long-term climate change effects, and the Green Investment Principles (GIPs) for Belt and Road have been promoted as a key instrument to green the Belt and Road. This article focuses on the question: What role do the GIPs play in building a green Belt and Road and addressing relevant regulatory challenges? Based on the theory of nodal governance, it is argued that the GIPs’ two-layered networks facilitate China to influence investment decisions over many countries along the Belt and Road indirectly through fund providers as key nodes to transition toward green investment. China also avoided direct interference with the domestic policies of host countries through the GIP network. As a framework agreement, the GIPs also provide opportunities for signatories to contribute to the design and negotiation of specific implementation standards, enhanced capacity building, and the prospect of more stringent and prescriptive environmental standards in the future.

Emotions and climate strike participation among young and old demonstrators

ABSTRACT Research shows that anger triggers participation in social movements, while fear inhibits action. Therefore, fear is less likely to contribute to citizens’ engagement in protest. However, in the case of climate change, fear may play a distinct role and thus contribute to participation. Given the long-term consequences of climate change, we argue that it triggers different emotions across disparate age groups. We investigate the extent to which young, adult, and senior climate strikers experience fear and anger in relation to climate change. Furthermore, we analyze the contribution of these emotions to younger and older citizens’ motivation to demonstrate. Using a unique dataset collected among climate strike demonstrators in eleven cities around the world in September 2019, we examine the importance of anger and fear in explaining motivations to take part in the demonstration – to pressure politicians or to defend one’s interests. Overall, we find that protesters aged above 60 years old are less likely to fear climate change but are more likely to feel anger in relation to this issue than younger generations. On the other hand, those aged below 35 report the highest levels of fear in relation to climate change and are significantly less angry than senior citizens. In all age groups, both anger and fear are associated with motivation to defend one’s interest and to pressure politicians.

Past and future climate change effects on the thermal regime and oxygen solubility of four peri-alpine lakes

Abstract. Long-term effects of climate change on lakes globally will include a substantial modification in the thermal regime and the oxygen solubility of lakes, resulting in the alteration of ecosystem processes, habitats, and concentrations of critical substances. Recent efforts have led to the development of long-term model projections of climate change effects on lake thermal regimes and oxygen solubility. However, such projections are hardly ever confronted with observations extending over multiple decades. Furthermore, global-scale forcing parameters in lake models present several limitations, such as the need of significant downscaling. In this study, the effects of climate change on thermal regime and oxygen solubility were analyzed in the four largest French peri-alpine lakes over 1850–2100. We tested several one-dimensional (1D) lake models' robustness for long-term variations based on up to 63 years of limnological data collected by the French Observatory of LAkes (OLA). Here, we evaluate the possibility of forcing mechanistic models by following the long-term evolution of shortwave radiation and air temperature while providing realistic seasonal trends for the other variables for which local-scale downscaling often lacks accuracy. Based on this approach, MyLake, forced by air temperatures and shortwave radiations, predicted accurately the variations in the lake thermal regime over the last 4 to 6 decades, with RMSE < 1.95 ∘C. Over the previous 3 decades, water temperatures have increased by 0.46 ∘C per decade (±0.02 ∘C) in the epilimnion and 0.33 ∘C per decade (±0.06 ∘C) in the hypolimnion. Concomitantly and due to thermal change, O2 solubility has decreased by −0.104 mg L−1 per decade (±0.005 mg L−1) and −0.096 mg L−1 per decade (±0.011 mg L−1) in the epilimnion and hypolimnion, respectively. Based on the shared socio-economic pathway SSP370 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), peri-alpine lakes could face an increase of 3.80 ∘C (±0.20 ∘C) in the next 70 years, accompanied by a decline of 1.0 mg L−1 (±0.1 mg L−1) of O2 solubility. Together, these results highlight a critical alteration in lake thermal and oxygen conditions in the coming decades, and a need for a better integration of long-term lake observatories data and lake models to anticipate climate effects on lake thermal regimes and habitats.

Investigating Climate Change Effects on Evapotranspiration and Groundwater Recharge of the Nile Delta Aquifer, Egypt

Climate change (CC) directly affects crops’ growth stages or level of maturity, solar radiation, humidity, temperature, and wind speed, and thus crop evapotranspiration (ETc). Increased crop ETc shifts the fraction of discharge from groundwater aquifers, while long-term shifts in discharge can change the groundwater level and, subsequently, aquifer storage. The long-term effect of CC on the groundwater flow under different values of ETc was assessed for the Nile Delta aquifer (NDA) in Egypt. To quantify such impacts, numerical modeling using MODFLOW was set up to simulate the groundwater flow and differences in groundwater levels in the long term in the years 2030, 2050, and 2070. The model was initially calibrated against the hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer layers of the groundwater levels in the year 2008 from 60 observation wells throughout the study area. Then, it was validated with the current groundwater levels using an independent set of data (23 points), obtaining a very good agreement between the calculated and observed heads. The results showed that the combination of solar radiation, vapor pressure deficit, and humidity (H) are the best variables for predicting ETc in Nile Delta zones (north, middle, and south). ETc among the whole Nile Delta will increase by 11.2, 15.0, and 19.0% for the years 2030, 2050, and 2070, respectively. Zone budget analysis revealed that the increase of ETc will decrease the inflow and the groundwater head difference (GWHD). Recharge of the aquifer will be decreased by 19.74, 27.16, and 36.84% in 2030, 2050, and 2070, respectively. The GWHD will record 0.95 m, 1.05 m, and 1.40 m in 2030, 2050, and 2070, respectively when considering the increase of ETc. This reduction will lead to a slight decline in the storage of the Nile Delta groundwater aquifer. Our findings support the decision of the designers and the policymakers to guarantee a long-term sustainable management plan of the groundwater for the NDA and deltas with similar climate conditions.

Climate change and its impacts on Vietnam agriculture: A macroeconomic perspective

Vietnam is an important contributor to the world's food industry as a major exporter of rice, seafood, and coffee. Climate change poses a serious threat to Vietnam's agricultural sector since it adversely affects food security in Vietnam and globally. This study investigates the short- and long-term effects of climate change on Vietnam's agriculture, both in terms of production and values at the macro level. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) Granger causality test with annual data from 1990 to 2019, we confirm the detrimental impacts of global warming on Vietnam's agricultural performance in both the short and long term. We also reveal the favorable effects of CO2 emissions, land, and fertilizer on Vietnam's agricultural production and economics. Other factors, including rainfall and labor, however, adversely affect Vietnam's agricultural output and economic performance. Based on the study's results, we provide policy recommendations to assist the government limit the negative effects of climate change on the national economy, thereby promoting poverty alleviation and sustainable development in Vietnam.

Forest Fire Prediction using Deep Learning

Wildfire prediction is an essential component of wildfire management. Accurate fire prediction is critical to mitigating its effects. It plays an important role in resource allocation, mitigation, and recovery. Wildfires rob the natural world of life and destroy the land they live on. Building forecast models will allow authorities to estimate the long-term effects of climate change on local forest distribution. Human motives include clearing and other agricultural activities, grassland care for livestock, extraction of non-timber forest products, industrial development, resettlement, hunting, neglect, and arson. Lightning strikes are the main cause of fires only in very remote areas of Canada and the Russian Federation. These wildfires are often man-made or caused by mother nature through varying weather conditions and wind. Wildfires economic and environmental impacts of wildfires are significant, and predictions can prevent long-term damage to sensitive forest ecosystems.